A tale of the toothless El Niño?

I’m not one to taunt El Niño, especially in a season where forecasters have consistently predicted a strong showing, but two months of below-average rainfall have brought to mind the old lady from the 1980s Wendy’s commercial who asks, “Where’s the beef?”

February was textbook with a capital TFebrainfall for Russell, which almost nailed its average exactly (It hit just .04 inches above its 4.14 average.) Hartwell and Thurmond fell slightly short, collecting 4.58 inches (4.96 average) and 3.69 inches (4.3 average), respectively.

Looking back to the same month during the last two very strong El Niños, Hartwell, Russell and Thurmond received 7.8, 7.4 and 6.9 inches (’97-98), and 6.1, 5.8 and 5.2 inches (’82-83), respectively.

So perhaps this El Niño wasn’t as strong as it initially appeared or the precipitation will come later.

While the Water Resources Outlook for the Southeast hasn’t been released for February, NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center published a report three weeks ago stating that El Niño will continue to weaken in the spring but there’s still a good chance for above average precipitation and below-average temperatures in our region.

In addition, even though March is historically the wettest month for the basin, the last time the sub-basins exceeded their March average was five years ago.

When taken together, you’d think there would be even more reason for this very strong El Niño to deliver a wetter than average March.

Perhaps he’s still holding out, or maybe he just needs a little taunting.

~ Jeremy S. Buddemeier, Corporate Communications Office

 

About US Army Corps of Engineers Savannah District

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Savannah District oversees a multimillion dollar military construction program at 11 Army and Air Force installations in Georgia and North Carolina. We also manage water resources across the Coastal Georgia region, including maintenance dredging of the Savannah and Brunswick harbors; operation of three hydroelectric dams and reservoirs along the upper Savannah River; and administration of an extensive stream and wetland permitting and mitigation program within the state of Georgia. Follow us on Twitter @SavannahCorps and on Facebook.com/SavannahCorps
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2 Responses to A tale of the toothless El Niño?

  1. Ferris says:

    Jeremy, thanks for the update, but please do not taunt El Niño! ;-)
    I am beginning to hope that Butler Creek levels will stay below 118′; although, it appears inevitable levels will exceed Flood Stage this spring and put us underwater again. In spite of slightly below average lake basin rainfall last month (4.05″ vs 4.56″), inflows remained well above average (14,292 cfs vs 11,139 cfs), generation remains at more than double the contract amount, and pools remain in Flood Storage. The scenario would seem to encourage lake levels a few inches below rather than a few inches above Full Pool. ~Ferris

  2. Mark Welborn says:

    Yes, I don’t recall any long range weather forecasting being worth the paper or airspace it occupied……maybe a lucky stroke every now and then. I have an inkling that we in the Upstate and NEGa. will be looking at dry coves and muddy red banks post July 4 just like normal. It’s a sad reality.

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